One of the main concerns that Iranians, both inside Iran and at diaspora, have is whether world powers especially the U.S. would allow this revolution to achieve victory and replace the totalitarian theocracy with a democracy in their country or not.

Like any other Middle Eastern nation with natural resources of oil and gas, Iranians know that their destiny is intertwined with economic and geopolitical interests of Western countries and international corporates. They are aware that the ultimate decision about the future of regimes in a region like the Middle East is made by world powers at a very high level of ‘inter-state’ relations.

Fifty years ago, people may see these ideas as cynical skepticism and conspiracy theory; however, states’ confidential documents revealed after the Cold War, Vietnam war, Afghanistan war and Iraq invasion as well as living in the age of information have given us enough evidence to understand these plots as ‘routines of international relations’ rather than some conspiracy theories.

Given all these, Iranians are concerned and ask each other what if the world powers’ interests depend on the existence of a pariah regime like Islamic Republic of Iran? what if their economic and security interests are better served with the presence of such rough regimes?

Though legitimate, such concerns cause disappointment and make people lose their hope for the change. 

To find an answer to these questions and address these worries, I believe we need to put ourselves in the shoes of these world powers, specifically the U.S., and understand what scenarios better serve their interests.

First, we should see what interests the U.S. has in the middle East and then compare possible scenarios for Iran in terms of their benefit to the U.S.

The first half of the 20^th century played a very significant role in the formation of the new world order; the collapse of the Ottoman empire and the emergence of the new Middle East (Bear in mind that all the Middle Eastern countries except Iran and Turkey were created through arbitrary borders by the U.K. and France, then main world powers, overnight, and thereby, are deeply dependent on the world powers), on the one hand, and the end of the World War II and the rise of the U.S. as a world power, on the other, gave rise to a new world.

Add to all these, the discovery and production of oil in the Middle East as well as the establishment of the state of Israel in Palestine.

Combining these factors create a highly complex picture of the Middle East with many players at local, regional, and international levels. Some of the mentioned factors are directly linked to the U.S.’ interests including the smooth flow of oil from the middle East to the West and the security of Israel. However, these are not all; selling weapons by American military corporates, access to Afghanistan’s opium/heroin, and preventing then the USSR and now Russia and China from penetrating in the Middle East are as important as oil and Israel to the U.S.

What we need to consider is which serve the above interests better: the Islamic Republic of Iran or a Secular Democratic Iran?

Scenario 1: Middle East with Islamic Republic of Iran

• The Islamic Republic define itself as an enemy to the West especially the U.S.
• The presence of the Islamic Republic in the Middle East apparently causes a severe existential threat to the security of Israel and makes troubles for Arab states in the region.
• Islamic Republic has close ties with Russia and China and threatens the U.S.’ geopolitical and economic hegemony in the region.
• Islamic Republic’s control over the strait of Hormoz (the main waterway in Persian Gulf) threatens the smooth flow of oil from Middle East to the rest of the world.
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Scenario 2: Middle East with a Secular Democratic Iran

• A democratic Iran will live in peace with Israel and its Arab neighbours.
• Presence of a democratic Iran reduces tensions, threats, and the possibility of war in the region.
• A democratic Iran with the rule of law will not assist in smuggling opium and heroin from Afghanistan to Europe.
• A democratic Iran will be leaning more towards democratic Western countries than Russia and China.
• A democratic Iran will be a normal cooperative member of the international community including oil market.

Comparing these two scenarios, it is a rule of a thump to know that a democratic Iran will be way more beneficial to the peace and security of the region and the whole world.

There are only two problems here; two powerful groups that their interests won’t be served if a democratic Iran replace the theocratic Iran: weapon factories and private military corporates and drug smuggling cartels/mafia. The former will lose big wealthy customers for their weapons like Saudi Arabia and UAE and contracts for operating wars in the region like in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the latter will lose the most beneficial trade in the world, both markets worth tens of billions annually.

The two problems of weapons and drugs complicate the picture and make it difficult to predict if the U.S. and other Western powers will support the regime change in Iran or not.

We need to analyse and discuss each matter in detail in a separate article so that we can hopefully come to a conclusion.